Since the 1 percent symbolism of January to the resounding 3 percent increase of May, the pricing playbook of the crown shows how the headwinds of currencies, the volatility of gold and capacity-building expansions are converging to transform the luxury-watch market.
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Two Tides, A Single Policy
The price adjustment in January seemed modest, just enough to keep the most basic steel Submariner in price range to give dinner in Geneva, but it paved the way to larger increase as tariffs on Swiss goods and a gold rally over $2 350 an ounce coincided in April.
To May, then, the across-the-board raise did not seem so much a surprise but a second performance of a much-practiced scenario: bid low at the outset to test the elasticity of demand, and raise the prices when macro risks turn out to be a clear and present danger. Experienced speculators observed that the second wave impacted all the formulas of entry-level Oyster Perpetuals to jewel-set Day-Dates in force, and Rolex is now poised to make outrageous sticker shock regular instead of turning it into the purview of halo models (Morgan Stanley Luxury Report, 2025).
The numbers behind the material (The Numbers Behind The Materials Mix)
The catalogue of Rolex falls in five categories of materials, and each has a different response to changes in commodity prices and currency fluctuations. The overall result of both hikes can be seen most clearly by laying the categories side by side.
| Material | Jan 2025 Increase | May 2025 Increase | Cumulative 2025 Increase |
| Stainless Steel/ Rolesium | 1 % | 3 % | 4 % |
| Platinum | 1 % | 1 % | 2 % |
| White Rolesor | 2 % | 3 % | 5 % |
| Yellow / Everose Rolesor | 5 %-9 % | 3 % | 8 %-12 % |
| Solid 18 k Gold | 7 % | 3 % | 10 % |
SOURCE Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH, 2025
The silent star in this scenario is platinum: Rolex may not want to risk selling its heaviest cases off customers wrists, especially with platinum haze in the used market chilling out in 2024, and so presumably they want increases to be limited. Steel, contrastingly, is a tidy 4 percent up in five months, which is not a wild enough ride to alienate would-be aspirational buyers, and which subsidises a boost in labour expenses at Plan-les-Ouates.
The Hype Drops such as the Bruce Wayne Compound Anchoring of Prices
The splash launch of the GMT-Master II dissolving time with the one-hour mark at 6:00 (ref. 126710 GRNR) in 2024 does not only feed the algorithms of the social media; it establishes a new psychological plateau. Every novelty causing queues convinces newcomers that four-figure premium is a rite of passage that gets easier to accept when generic models take over with the same price. In the financial-behavioural sense, the short runs create an anchor that the rest of the catalogue can work to ascend without causing a backlash; May experienced a 3 percent adjustment, but it merely made official what the hype already institutionalised (London School of Economics Behavioural Pricing Study, 2024).
Why January and not October or November is Rolex Compass Date, and Why May was the anomaly
Traditionally, January price lists allow the authorised dealers to print out new labels before the start of Baselworld hype-Rolex would rather people find new references under glass rather than new price rises. The procedure-defying action in May is reminiscent of the pandemic-driven catch-up that we witnessed in 2020 as well as the currency realignment of the middle of 2024, as the house cannot hesitate to act in the middle of the cycle when the conditions change too rapidly. Most importantly, the brand has missed all the U.S. rises since 2013, a reminder to even its skeptics that out-of-control never became the standard setting in its watch while restrained was (Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Study, 2025).
Currency Discipline: The Influence of a Powerful Franc On Pricing in the World
Rolex hedges two of its safe havens: Swiss franc and U.S. dollar. When the yen lost 8 per cent against CHF at the end of 2024, Japanese retail prices would jump on 1 January 2025, even though most dollar prices would stagnate. In comparison, the increase in May was U.S-only since the tariff sentiments that emanated in Washington abruptly increased the delivery cost of Rolex watches into USA. This makes the brand observe regional profit like a pendulum surrounded by FX choppiness, the recent move by May balanced the pendulum before it resembled erosion in the margins of Zurich accounts (UBS FX Desk Data, 2025).
Counter Culture Shock Sticker Across
| Model | 2024 Price | Jan 2025 Price | May 2025 Price | 12-Month 6 |
| Stainless Steel Submariner 124060 | $9 100 | $9 200 | $9 500 | +4.4 % |
| Steel Submariner Date 126610 LV | 10 650 | 10 900 | 11 200 | +5.2 % |
| Two-Tone Submariner 126613 | 15 600 | 17 000 | 17 600 | +12.8 % |
| GMT-Master II 126710 Oyster | 10 700 | 10 800 | 11 100 | +3.7 % |
| Air-King 126900 | 7 450 | 7 550 | 7 750 | +4.0 % |
SOURCING WatchPro, 2025
Although percentages are in the single-digit range, it does not take long to add up dollar figures. The two-colour Submariner has in turn taken the position of the gold Daytonas of 2009 and throws into sharp relief the extent to which the blend-metal pieces have ascended into societal status. An on-store visit to an AD now will be a third more expensive than in 2020 on the same watch.
Platinum and Entry-level Steel: Asymmetrical Pressure Points
Is it worth saving platinum? Since at that height demand is already inelastic: would-be owners cross-shop Patek Grandmaster Chimes, and think nothing of an additional $500. Steel, in its turn, is the pipeline of concentration of loyalty of Rolex; a minor increase in verge will not make its suitors switch to Tudor or Grand Seiko. This is asymmetry demonstrating that Rolex is looking to expand the funnel at the entry point of $8 000 to 12 000 instead of shrinking it even as it continues to skim the margins on halo metals (Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, 2024).
Daytona Demand Curve: How Scarcity and Elastic Margins work together
The Daytona continues as the only model on which the wait lists are ten times higher than production. The up to 19 percent increase in January on idents relating to yellow-gold had the effect of positioning the chronograph once again as a SFr50 000 object, as it gets at auction when not equipped with Cerachrom. The rationale of Rolex is simple, whereby since the flippers are already making those spreads in the after market there is no reason why the brand should not take a cut. The estimates of scholar experts place the Daytona elasticity at -0.2, which is close to meaning that when the price increases, the demand is hardly affected, which is exactly a classic scenario of aggressive price increases (Harvard Business School Luxury Demand Elasticity Paper, 2023).
Following the increase in May Chronograph Premiums
May was raising their prices 3 percent, but on rose-gold Oysterflex, that represented 1200 dollars overnight, a Tissot PRX. Even longer Daytona allocation intervals are noted in ADs with employees redirecting few items to the clients who take bundled deals or off-take in high-profit-level gem-set Datejusts. Starvation, it appears, has two solutions, starvation and package deals.
The Physical Weight of Gold turns into a Financier Assayon
A Day-Date 40 weighs about four troy ounces of 18 k gold. Back in 2015, when that model was launched, bullion was trading within spitting distance of $1 200 an ounce; in May 2025 it was dancing with $2 400, doubling the raw-material load. The spot price of gold, unlike that of diamonds, cannot be ignored because it is quoted every hour and watching it like a pain in the neck; Rolex thus shares some of the spike to protect its profit margin without opting to introduce alloy-based material (World Gold Council, 2025).
| Year | Spot (oz) | Gold in Day-Date 40 | Bullion Cost Percent of MSRP |
| 2015 | $1 200 | $4 800 | 14 % |
| 2020 | 1 900 | 7 600 | 18 % |
| 2025 | $2 400 | $9 600 | 22 % |
SOURCES World Gold Council, 2025
Squeezed Dealers: The 1 Percent Margin Give-Back
When whispered by Rolex to the authorised dealers with the request of cutting the gross margin of 34 percent to 33 percent followed by multiplication of the amount by the annual turnover, it is something insignificant. U.S. top-tier ADs are now surrendering nearly $300 000 per every $30 million of sales they had in the past spent in lieu of opulently furnishing client-experience lounges. The strategy increases the internal pricing power of Rolex and shifts the tariff charge to mall landlords (WatchPro, 2025).
This comeback of Two-Tone was an indicator of a change in taste
As steel sports references that were adjusted on Chrono24 in 2024, the two-tone references slipped and rose, ending a one-decade normalization of the view that “Steel is purist”. With their five-figure steel waitlists, the Millennials found yellow Rolesor feels to be both retro and, somehow, within their reach. Just as Rolex climbed in May, the two-tone Submariner 126613 LB virtually falls into its current official year-end target of $17 000, which seems to have become a practical average of the grey-market median, rather than a tick below it like it used to (Chrono24 Insight Report, 2025).
The 2029 horizon factory and bottlenecks in production
Rolex is currently manufacturing just over 1.25 m timepieces annually or 2.4 every minute. Three new plants, of which the biggest is planned to be built in Bulle by 2029, can take that number by 25 percent. But it is still head-count the bottleneck: training in apprenticeship-length requires that any increase fall back by five years. Therefore the tuition-free 18 month watch courses in Dallas and Kuala Lumpur offered by Rolex: you can not accelerate machines so accelerate humans. Today, the price discipline gives credit towards volume tomorrow (Swiss State Secretariat for Education and Research, 2025).
Professional Interview: Insiders Perspectives
Interviewee 1: Dr. Laura Schmidt — Senior Luxury-Goods Analyst, Zeitgeist Advisors (Zurich)
Q: What is the one thing that caused Rolex to move prices in the middle of the year?
A: April tariff banter in the US was the match to that broom handle of business i.e. tariff talk, but labour inflation in Geneva was the tinder. Rolex foresaw FX mismatch and instead of letting their margins wither until 2026, they funded expansion of payroll in advance.
Q: What are the available prices that would not be faced with defection?
A: What our elasticity model does do is demonstrate that the steel Submariner can take another 5 percent before cross-shopping tips over to Tudor. More than that, attrition picks up the pace.
Interviewee 2: Mateo Gonzalez — Managing partner, Premier timepieces AD (Miami)
Q: Have the increases in prices altered the purchasing behaviour in the counter?
A: On the one hand we now have new customers who are paying with two credit cards to get the payments made — the price is biting. Still the waitlists to acquire steel GMTs continue to swell. The actual trend is to package deal: a Lady-Datejust and a Daytona is allocation.
Q: How early reading on secondary-market effects?
A: Yellow-gold Daytona prices went up about 3 percent overnight. Flippers use gross return and not percentage, hence, a 2 000 lift will keep the hustle active.
What should viewers look out next through Collectors?
Another micro-tweak can be anticipated with the moment when gold is traded with a decisive price above 2 500 dollars or a new round of tariffs against Swiss exports is threatened. On the other hand, a sharp slide in Franc against the dollar would keep U.S. prices paralysed up until 2026. Until the time when Rolex will crank the supply wheel with its new factories, in the interim aspirants watching the steel sports models should plan to pay a consistent 3-4 percent price increase each spring, conclusive evidence that in the Geneva profit calculation, time and price can be cured together.
Author Bio
Ethan Price, PhD is a Swiss watch-industry analyst and an ex-equity researcher in luxury goods. He utilizes twenty years of experience at work to decipher the influence of macroeconomics and engineering in the contemporary mechanical horology.